Is Colin Kaepernick the Quarterback of the Future?
In 2010 I lost my mind over the sound fundamentals of Troy Smith, and was ready to leave Alex Smith on the slag heap. I was wrong in that case, and I hesitate to anoint Colin Kaepernick the newest Alex Smith replacement today, because of the way Smith has played to this point. However, one cannot avoid the talent and skill that Kaepernick displayed as the 49ers dismantled the Bears 32-7 on Monday Night Football.
If you’ve been following me on Twitter, you will have seen my thoughts on the situation last night, but I wanted to encapsulate them here in a blog post so that you can read the full extent of my opinion on the matter.
Alex Smith had a career year in 2011, and is poised to match or eclipse that in 2012. He is having what is close to a Pro Bowl year, near the top of the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating and QBR. He is scoring more touchdowns and hitting on more deep plays than 2011. His only drawback thus far is yards per game, attempts per game, and perhaps some missed opportunities left on the field.
It is my opinion that a team that is contending for a championship, who is positioning itself for playoff seeding, cannot afford to ditch their starting Quarterback simply because his backup had a great start. Alex Smith has been playing well, has a great command of the offense, and if anything he displayed a renewed confidence against Arizona, delivering throws he didn’t normally make. I think Smith was poised to experience an ascension until a concussion took him out for this game.
However, I think a perfect example to look at is when Tom Brady replaced Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe was playing fine and the Patriots were winning when he went down with an injury. Brady came in to relieve him and played better. It wasn’t about bad vs. good, it was about good vs. better. Brady came in and it was his job from then on out.
To compare the two, Alex Smith is a cerebral player who can see the play within the play, diagnose the defense, know who is going to be open and deliver the ball. Colin Kaepernick is an instinctual player, who can see the play outside the play. When Alex Smith encounters pressure, he first sees the pressure to avoid it, taking his eyes off the development of the play downfield. Last night Kaepernick displayed an innate ability to feel the pressure, sliding in the pocket without looking away from the play. It is an innate ability and can’t be taught.
An argument can be made that it’s not Smith’s fault that the team was so bad at protecting the passer for so many years, that he has learned to look at the pressure to avoid costly hits. That is perfectly logical, but it cannot be used as an argument to keep Kaepernick off the field. Kaepernick must be judged according to his own merits, not whether another player has overcome a particular issue.
One also cannot get away from the fact that against the Minnesota Vikings, the New York Giants and the Seattle Seahawks, Alex Smith left a lot on the field. All three are fairly strong defenses. Last night Colin Kaepernick dismantled the defense of the Chicago Bears, as of last night the best in scoring defense and turnovers. But also remember Arizona had one of the better pass defenses and Alex Smith dismantled them.
It must be said that Lovie Smith, when asked about preparing for two different quarterbacks, said “we’re going to prepare to stop the run.” Their gameplan was to keep the ground game from beating them, leaving them susceptible to the pass game. They weren’t prepared for Kaepernick to beat them in the air, and it showed. Had Alex Smith been starting, I believe he also could have taken advantage of this gameplan, but perhaps not to the degree Kaepernick did. We’ll never know.
I think Colin Kaepernick has a great skill set and a fresh mindset. He is not carrying the weight of several years of struggle. He’s supremely confident, well-prepared, with a coaching and team support structure Alex Smith never had. However I think Alex Smith’s experience gives him the edge on the road in a hostile environment. That’s why I believe Harbaugh will start Smith if he gains clearance from the doctors. Either way, the 49ers will face a weak New Orleans defense.
Harbaugh should be relieved, and so should the fans, knowing we have a capable backup who can come in and win. Alex Smith should understand that if he holds back, if he plays too conservatively, if the team struggles, there is a guy behind him who can play. If the team finds itself in a critical must-win situation like the NFC Championship last year, and he feels the team needs a spark, I think Kaepernick will get the call again this year.
This is much more than a Troy Smith scenario. Kaepernick displayed a wide range of talents over the last game and a half. The ability to not just scramble, but slide in the pocket and deliver the ball. The ability to make a couple reads to the right, find no one open, drift to the left and buy time, and throw a perfect spiral right on target against his body. He threw the ball into a ridiculously tight window to Vernon Davis, and lobbed perfect deep balls over close defenders. He showed he can run the play as drawn up, and can save the play when it breaks down. He showed he can diagnose a defense and audible to the right call. If he is not ready to claim the title of full-time starter, he has shown he is ready to play football at the NFL level.
If you ask me who gives the team the “best chance to win,” I don’t think it’s that simple. I don’t believe either guy gives the team less of a chance to win than the other. I am comfortable with either one, but I think Alex’s experience gives him an edge right now. I think Kaepernick’s ceiling is higher, but Smith has played too well to simply cast him aside at this point.
If Alex remains the starter til season’s end, I believe Harbaugh will make the switch to Kaepernick in the offseason, and I think Alex will ask for his release. If Harbaugh switches to Kaepernick now, it could interrupt the momentum the team had through to the bye week, or it could be a Brady vs. Bledsoe transition. If Alex keeps the job and the team wins a Super Bowl? Then I wouldn’t want to be Jim Harbaugh!
Either way, I think that Colin Kaepernick is the likely Quarterback of the future for the 49ers. It’s only a matter of when.
November 20th, 2012 at 4:28 pm
This was honestly a situation I was worried about. Its not a bad situation but it’s sort of one I hoped wouldn’t arise until the off-season. It’s great that we have a back up quarterback that can come in and demolish a team like Chicago. Kaep and the defense deserve a TON of credit for the dismantling of Chicago on National Television. I can’t deny how well Kaep played last night, but I have to say, it was one game. I can’t jump on his band wagon yet. I think we give him one more game under the excuse of, let Alex get healthy, and then see how he does on the road against the Saints. The Saints defense is not as good as Chicago, but we will be on the road against a surging Saints team in a hostile environment. If Kaep can walk in there and have a similar performance then I will officially jump on the Kaepwagon.
November 20th, 2012 at 6:01 pm
I’ve been on record as saying Kaepernick will never be a viable NFL Starter. But I was wrong. He did things last night that I didn’t think he could do. But it was one game. Even if Colin starts the rest of the year, defenses will adjust, he will go through a growing phase with mistakes and turnovers. But we are a championship team now. Alex is still our best option right now. I believe that is what you’re saying too Jim.
And anyone who brings up the”Tom Brady” transition is completely delusional in my opinion. To take one of the greatest football players to ever play, in Brady, and say this could be the same deal…it’s unfair for Colin, Alex, coaches, and fans. It’s not realistic. I could say this is more like a McNabb-Kolb situation as well, and be just as right.
Have fun with this one Jim. Lots to talk about
November 20th, 2012 at 6:50 pm
I believed Kaepernick had great talent from the beginning, the question being whether it would translate to the NFL. He had great accuracy and awareness in college, but obviously struggled early on in preseason games. He put on some weight, kept working, and has obviously improved quite a bit in my estimation. People who kept saying Kaepernick wasn’t ready had obviously not seen a large enough sample. Likewise the people who said he was.
A controversy wasn’t what I wanted, either. But honestly part of me wanted Kaepernick to come out and light it up and prove to us who he was, and I think he did that. Part of me wished for him to just take the job now, be the guy, and let everyone move on to the next phase. Part of me knew what kind of dilemma that would put the team in.
I brought up the Brady/Bledsoe thing because it’s an apt analogy, Danny. No one’s predicting Kaepernick to be the next Tom Brady, just like no one then predicted Tom Brady would become Tom Brady. But the Patriots were a Super Bowl contender with Bledsoe, had been there with him before, and Brady was the guy who took over because of injury. Point is there is precedence for a good player losing his job for good because the replacement came in and played really well.
To say this could be McNabb/Kolb is also an apt analogy because it hasn’t played out yet. It could turn out that way. However, Kolb had fundamental flaws from the beginning, even when he WAS playing well in Philly. I pointed them out then, and I continue to point them out now. Kaepernick has a stronger arm, much better pocket presence, better field vision, etc. This could even be related to the John Kitna/Carson Palmer situation. Kitna came off a Pro Bowl year and still they went to Palmer, who became a really good player for several years.
The other factor is he did this against the Bears, not a team like the Bills. He wasn’t Matt Flynn beating up on Detroit at home in a shootout in Week 17. This was a game with serious playoff implications against a top defense. What he has over Alex is a confidence to make the aggressive play when it presents itself. He lacks the hesitation and second-guessing Alex is famous for and still can’t quite lick. I thought he licked it pretty good against Arizona, and I’d like to see Alex have the opportunity to keep going this year.
Unless and until Alex becomes a transcendent player, and first transcends his own limitations, Kaepernick will move into that role next season.
November 20th, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Again I hate to disagree with you about the Brady thing again. But to suggest the 2001 Patriots were “Super Bowl” contenders or suggest they are similar in situation as the 49ers is just plain wrong.
The Patriots were coming off of a 5-11 season in 2000. Nobody picked the Pats as contenders going into that season. The 49ers were a few plays short of the Super Bowl last year. The Pats lost three of the first four games in 2001 and Brady was lost in week two. Brady wasn’t available until much later in the year giving Brady much more time to play free of controversy. Alex is one of the top rated QB’s while going 6-2. And his injury may only last a week. The Patriots were in a far more better position to have a second year QB lead a team without Super Bowl expectations.
I acknowledge that Kaepernick is talented and maybe the future. But please Jim, do not perpetuate the Brady comparison! It only fuels Alex Haters into thinking that is a viable comparison. Facts show that the Brady situation was completely unique and different.
There is enough there without Tom Brady!
November 20th, 2012 at 8:44 pm
I meant Bledsoe was lost in week two. But get the point
November 20th, 2012 at 9:30 pm
To answer your question, yes he is the QB of the future for the Niners. But this season, Alex Smith has gotten the benefit of the doubt playing under Harbaugh. For now, I back Alex Smith as the QB of the Niners. The future though, belongs to Kaepernick.
November 21st, 2012 at 1:26 am
Ok it’s not a direct one-to-one comparison. No one had them picked as a contender, but the fact remains that they did contend for it and won it. No they weren’t a great team early like Alex playing this well and the team being 6-2. It’s just the precedent of the thing. I’m not saying it’s a wise decision, and certainly not that it’s a foregone conclusion. Just a scenario to consider.
November 21st, 2012 at 9:13 pm
After watching Harbaugh’s presser, I am really disappointed we are here again. I can’t understand why a former QB like Harbaugh would allow this to happen. A full blown QB competition in the middle of a winning season with a team that is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
If this is just gamesmanship and its about keeping opponents guessing, then at what cost? Now we are back to second guessing every incomplete pass Alex throws. Over analyzing every check down pass as being “scared” or incapable of going down field. Some of these criticisms were already there, despite winning. Now Harbaugh just threw a drum of gasoline on top of the issue and lit a match.
And the other side is Harbaugh wants Kap in there and will give him the job. Okay. But let’s think about that for a minute. We are replacing an established winning QB who is playing at a high level on a Super Bowl contending team. It’s not like Kap is coming in for Mark Sanchez. So we are telling this young talented inexperienced player to go out and win a Super Bowl based on six real quarters of game experience. If Kap goes out there and does not play well, how easy is the transition back to Alex? If Kap goes out there and plays well but doesn’t go to the Super Bowl, it opens it up to “what if Alex was in?” Anything short of the Super Bowl is a failure for Kap as the starter right now. How is that fair for him?
Harbaugh is a great coach. But this is a complete poor miscalculation on his part. This is wrong any way you look at it. Not good for the team, despite Harbaugh’s belief they are on some sort of island of team serenity.
The right decision is to announce Smith as your unquestioned leader and starter this year (although that option is already hindered now). Open competition during off season. Move forward with Kap.
Can’t wait to hear the nex podcast Jim.
November 22nd, 2012 at 9:18 am
So reports are coming in that Kap is set to be the Starter. Apparently Harbaugh does not read this blog or he would have clearly seen the error in this.
With everything I know about the situation. Admittadly I may not know it all. But I disagree with this decision by the head coach on every level. See above.
But I also have a sense of betrayal from Harbaugh. Not because of the decision to go with Kap. But with the months and months of pledging his allegiance to Alex Smith. “Elite”, “Our Guy”, etc. This was all an act. And I knew they weren’t being 100% transparent about Peyton Manning. But I also did believe that Harbaugh meant what he said when he said, “Alex has earned the right to be the starting QB.” So what did Alex do to lose that right? What did Kap do to earn that right?
But this is not so much for me. Harbaugh does not owe me the truth, nor does he have to be truthful to the media. But the next time he gets up in front of a camera and raves about Crabtree’s greatest hands ever, or Frank Gore’s Statue, or Justin Smith’s MVP vote…how can the locker room take his word at face value now?
If Kap is truly the starter going forward, I will cheer him on as I am a 49ers Fan. But the human in me can’t help but feel for Alex Smith. He did everything right all the time. He was loyal to a fault. And he never got the Full support from the fans, coaching staff, or the organization. And when I say coaching staff, I do not define continually looking for something better, or benching Alex for the “hot hand” true sustainable support. Alex Smith is a good person, a good quarterback, and a great teammate. Sometimes that is not enough. He deserves better.
Lets turn this page. Go 49ers!