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Nobody switches horses at turn two.

If there is anything horse racing has taught me, living so near the American mecca of horsedom, it’s that rarely does a winner come out of the gate in front. A thoroughbred has so much pent up energy, that for a jockey to release it too soon spells doom for its chances.  The horse must pace the field before letting loose with everything it has.  Conversely, if a horse is nervous or unsure, a jockey cannot afford to lose patience.  Witness Zenyatta, the 13-0 filly that came back from dead last at the Breeder’s Cup Classic at Santa Anita, defeating the males and putting her in the debate for Horse of the Year.  Zenyatta was 11th in a field of twelve, before making her move at the quarter pole.  She had an awful start, was off-stride, and just didn’t seem ready to go.  Eventually her jockey, Mike Smith, managed to get her into a rhythm, and the rest is horse racing history.

The struggles of the 49ers are much the same in my mind, and especially the beginning of Alex Smith’s new run as the team’s starting quarterback.

It’s not hard to understand why the 49ers defense has looked better every year since 2006.  Greg Manusky is in the midst of his fourth year as the Defensive Coordinator.  The team has many of the same starters since 2007, with the leader of that unit being Patrick Willis.  If this defense has struggled, it has been when the offense could not move the ball.  This has been the primary issue for the 49ers’ offense since Mike Nolan came to town in 2005, with his rookie spread/option quarterback in tow.  It doesn’t pay to relive the old days, but suffice to say the 49ers have not experienced much continuity in the offensive unit.  Comparing the experience of Alex Smith to Peyton Manning is a lesson in doing things right versus doing things wrong.  Tony Dungy retained Tom Moore as offensive coordinator when he was hired as the head coach of the Colts in 2002, and Moore has been there ever since.  Because of the organization’s devotion to developing a winning culture, and because of Tony Dungy’s vision, Peyton Manning has experienced a 13-year run of consistency.

This is something Mike Nolan could not achieve when he took over the 49ers, because I believe he lacked a consistent vision on both sides of the ball.  Everyone knows that Nolan had zero offensive vision, and this has been the primary contributing factor to the consecutive losing seasons for the 49ers.  He seems to have thought he could plug anyone into the role and simply played good defense to the playoffs.  From Mike McCarthy to Norv Turner, to a guy who never played an offensive position, to Mike Martz, this offensive unit has been in flux.  Major injuries to Alex Smith has led to a team being led by four different quarterbacks at different times over the last three years.  There is very little chemistry between any of the quarterbacks and receivers.  Peyton Manning has been throwing to Reggie Wayne since 2001, and Dallas Clark since 2003.  The nearest thing we have is Alex Smith has been throwing to Vernon Davis since 2006.  Interrupted by two calendar years of Trent Dilfer, Shaun Hill, J.T. O’Sullivan and Shaun Hill again.

This is not a recipe for success, and the kitchen stinks.  We don’t like the taste of the food, and we’d like to send the Chef a note reading, “Dear Scot McCloughan, thanks but no thanks for the food poisoning.”

Now Mike Singletary has a chance, in only his first season as a Head Coach, to establish his vision.  For all the hey made about his “I want to run the football” statements, he has always wanted a balanced attack, and you don’t survive in the NFL without balance.  We’ve seen Singletary adapt and make changes already.  The offense has taken a more aggressive approach, and they’ve learned that they can open up the running game for Gore.  We’ve seen Singletary show some trust in Jason Hill, and it’s paid off.  49ers fans, at large, have grown impatient with a bad product on the field, so much so that they seem to want to now ditch Mike Singletary, ditch Scot McCloughan, and just start fresh.  This is understandable from a fan’s perspective, but it makes little sense from an organizational one.  Fans see the same lame horses coming in second, and they want a new trainer.

The problem is the team has now changed jockeys in the middle of the race.  Smith has had only two starts after sitting out for two entire calendar years, and the moment Smith has the slightest struggle, fans are ready to burn the house down.  The same way they view Mike Singletary through the lens of the Mike Nolan era, they see Alex Smith through the lens of #1 overall disappointment.  Looking at the stat sheet from the Tennessee game, it’s easy to say it’s the same old Alex Smith.  The problem is, it’s not.  In these two starts Smith has had three balls tipped for interceptions, but fans are notorious for gut reactions.  They see Smith, they see an interception, they immediately assume the worst.  But fans in Green Bay or Pittsburgh don’t get out of sorts when Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger play a bad game.  Granted, they have a longer history of good play, and it helps to have a couple Super Bowl rings.  But consistency is the name of the game.

Smith has been running the scout team for much of the season.  He is just now developing chemistry with the starting offensive line, clearly not the best unit out there,  he’s learning which receivers he can trust (Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Jason Hill), and which ones he can’t (Isaac Bruce, Josh Morgan).  Is it any surprise that he has chemistry with Vernon, having thrown to him for three years?  How about with Jason Hill, to whom he’s been throwing on the scout team?  How about with Michael Crabtree with whom he worked during the offseason and the bye week?  What about Jimmy Raye?  How long has he been around this team?  Would Tom Moore be able to come in here and make this offense chug along immediately?  Not a chance.  The coordinator has to develop his chemistry with his players just as much as the quarterback does.

This is the conundrum in which 49ers fans find themselves.  Sick and tired of losing seasons, they clamor for a change as soon as the wind turns sour.  However, for any organization, head coach, coordinator or quarterback to have success, they need time.  It was clear the team could not move the ball with Shaun Hill, and it is equally clear that they move the ball better and score more points with Alex Smith.  The entire team needs time to develop its chemistry and its routine, and find their legs together.  It’s unfortunate that it’s the middle of the season when they have to do it, but they still have to do it.  I daresay this team needs to finish this season and go into the next with the exact same people in place before we know just what they can all do together.

The vision is there, and the they’re still trying to figure out what they’re capable of.  I hate to say they’ve been experimenting the last two games, but in large part that’s exactly what they’re doing.  Smith has come out aggressive, and yeah he’s thrown a few picks.  But really, only one of those has been a throw right into the teeth of the defense.  Take away a desperation last-second throw against Houston and three tipped interceptions, and you have a completely different outlook.  Smith is still learning what his linemen are going to do versus the pass rush.  He is still learning where his safety valves are, and yes, he’s figuring out where his limitations lie.  He is learning that he can’t squeeze a ball into the tight spots.  He’s learning that he need not try so hard to escape the pocket.  He’s learning that he has to look off the defense before making his through.  Yes, he has bad habits that creep up, but less than he used to, and it’s only two games in.  He’s learning.

The entire team is still learning, and that’s hard for fans to take.  But that’s the reality of the situation.  Two starts after two years on the sideline is nowhere close to the time needed to decide whether or not Alex Smith is going to be the quarterback of this team going forward.  Smith has had a chance for a new start with the same team, and he needs to be granted the same leeway as Glen Coffee, Michael Crabtree, or even Jason Hill.  The trouble is, many fans are not willing to grant that to him, because they still live in the past.