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Much was made of Jerry Rice’s assertion, after the 49ers drafted Smith in 2005, that “Alex Smith is not the answer.” If the question is one of an immediate turnaround, then no, Alex Smith was most certainly not the answer. This made me wonder about the immediate contributions of previous Quarterbacks selected #1 overall by their teams. This is not an attempt at narrowing the gap between Shaun Hill and Alex Smith. What this is, however, is shedding light on the average success rate of Quarterbacks chosen #1 overall in the draft. Remember that teams own the #1 pick because they are BAD TEAMS. Here’s a link to an Excel spreadsheet outlining the research:

16 Quarterbacks have been taken #1 overall in the Super Bowl era.

Of those 16 Quarterbacks, one had a winning season his rookie year, John Elway at 9-7. He did this with a rating of 54.9. Only 6 of those had winning records in their second seasons. Elway, Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Vick, Palmer, and Eli Manning.

Of those 16 Quarterbacks, none had a rating as a rookie higher than 73.8, Jeff George. The AVERAGE was 59.3. Aikman had a 55.7. Manning had a 71.2. Tim Couch did better at 73.2. Terry Bradshaw had a 30.4. Alex Smith had a better rating in his 2nd season than Bradshaw, Plunkett, Bartkowski, Testaverde, Aikman, George, Bledsoe, and David Carr. Smith had more wins his second season than all of those, plus Tim Couch. The average record for #1 overall QB’s in their second season is 7-9, the average rating 69.3.

The average mark for QB’s earning a rating of 80 or above is their 5th season. The minimum number of games played to qualify for the NFL’s ranking is 8. Smith was available for eight games in only two seasons of play. Only three QB’s reached an 80+ rating in their second season of play, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer (3rd, DNP 1st season) and Michael Vick. Only two QB’s achieved an 80+ rating in their 3rd year, Troy Aikman and David Carr. 3 of these quarterbacks have yet to achieve an 80+ rating, being Couch, Smith, and JaMarcus Russell.

Alex Smith has yet to log his 3rd season of play, as his 3rd career year was cut short by injury. Just for kicks and giggles, the average rating in year 3 is 71.6. Smith’s rating over his first three and healthy games was 67.4, just a shade under the average. What else is interesting is Smith is not the only one to improve year 2 then drop off year 3. Elway 54.9, 76.8, 70.2; George 73.8, 73.8, 61.5; Bledsoe 65.0, 73.6, 63.7. One of the contributing factors was 49er Quarterbacks had to endure an unprecedented number of dropped passes by their Wide Receivers:

Last year (2006), out of the quarterbacks who had at least 320 attempts (20 per game) by the end of the season, no one was victimized by his receivers more than Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck. He watched 30 well-thrown passes go through the hands of his teammates — 12.5 percent of all the catchable balls he threw.

What’s a catchable ball? It’s the number of completions plus the number of drops.

How significant are they? That can certainly be debated. But consider the fact that out of last year’s quarterbacks who had 10 percent or more of their catchable passes dropped, Hasselbeck was the only one who wasn’t at home watching the playoffs on television.

1. Alex Smith (20.4 percent) – What happened to the 49ers wide receivers? After posting the third-least drops in the league last year, they’ve been killing Smith and the San Francisco offense by dropping 11 out of 54 catchable throws. They’re making Seattle’s league-worst 12.5 percent from last year look good. Seven different receivers have drops so far, with running back Frank Gore leading the group with 3 drops in just four games. Smith separated his shoulder last weekend, so veteran Trent Dilfer gets his chance to see if the receivers can catch his tosses any better.

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Remember that teams own the #1 pick because they are BAD TEAMS.

Of those 16 Quarterbacks, none had a team defense as rookies ranked higher than 13th, Bledsoe’s New England Patriots. The average Defensive ranking was 21st. The 2005 49ers were last at 32. In the second season, the average defensive ranking was also 21st. The 2006 49ers were ranked 26th. Despite this lower than average ranking, Smith’s 49ers were at the average win-loss mark.

The fact is that every #1 overall QB has struggled upon entering the league. Some players, like Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer, have coaches and organizations that put the right environment and players around them to ensure their success.

Others, like Jeff George and Ryan Leaf (#2 overall) did not possess the malleability or attitude to overcome their situations. In fact, in Jeff George’s case, the Colts traded away their starting Left Tackle, top Wideout (Andre Rison) and two more key players to acquire the rights to George. This is an example of an organization failing to provide the right support to a #1 overall pick.

Other organizations, like the Cowboys, Patriots and Giants, worked hard but took longer to get to the point of success for their players. Aikman, Bledsoe, and Eli Manning took a little more time to reach an 80+ rating, let alone the Super Bowl. Tim Couch was overall a decent quarterback who could not overcome a bad team and organization.

Of those 16 Quarterbacks, 10 achieved an element of long-term success. 10 were sent to the Pro Bowl, 6 of them have won a Super Bowl. 3 of them are in the Hall of Fame, with Peyton Manning sure to join them upon his eligibility. Heck, even Steve Bartkowski was a two-time Pro Bowler. Even Jeff George has seen a taste of the playoffs. David Carr appears rejuvinated in the now-great Giants organization.

According to the evidence, grooming a Quarterback you’ve selected #1 overall is akin to managing your investments in Mutual Funds. You could put your money in a Money Market account or CD and make some kind of immediate return. But for the best long-term return on that investment, Mutual Funds over at least a five-year period make the most sense financially speaking. Dave Ramsey will tell you to steer clear of a fund if it does not have at least a five-year track record.

The conclusion from this data is that the 49ers made an investment in a #1 overall Quarterback, and according to history, that investment has not been allowed to mature over its appropriate time, being 2-5 years depending on the team around him. This should not imply that I think Smith has five more years to make good on that investment. But he has had only one full season as the starting Quarterback. Anyone who thinks that this is enough to judge him by is severely discounting the historical track records of #1 overall Quarterbacks.

Smith has not had a large enough sample of play to be legitimately and statistically declared a bust. Emotionally, many fans already apply that label, but emotion is not where the facts are. In his second season he was right on the track of success of a #1 overall Quarterback.

What says to me that he will still be successful is this: He has the selfless attitude of all great players. He has the singular talent that made him the consensus #1 Quarterback in the 2005 draft. His team now has the support structure designed to get the best out of its players, and the team has not given up on him. Those three factors have, in the past, ensured the success of previous #1 picks. Those who have not achieved success did not have those three elements in place.

That is why Alex Smith will be the starter. That is why Alex Smith’s breakout year is now.